With its pro-am element akin to that which we see play out every spring at Pebble Beach, this week’s Dubai Invitational sees the year-long race to get back there in November complete its very first lap of 2026 – albeit with far less famous celebrities teeing it up and more expats in the gallery, of course.

Pulling in the likes of Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood to help launch the event, the inaugural showing of the Dubai Invitational last season struck me as being more of a casual knock around to open the year, as opposed to resembling anything overtly serious. Again, you can point to the pro-am feature of the event that saw celebrities taking to the course with the players for the first three days. The fact that there was no cut certainly lessened any sense of stress for the sixty golfers in the field. And having seen how the course was set up in terms of the rough and the firmness of the greens, it wasn’t exactly overly punishing.

But while the well-known names and guaranteed money endure for this year’s iteration, going by an article that Harry Wells, the Superintendent for Dubai Creek Resort, wrote for Golf Digest Middle East, a far sterner test lies in wait for the field this week, with thicker rough and firmer greens being called upon to help bolster the defences of the course beyond the ever-present plethora of water hazards. And whilst we won’t know for certain how impactful these efforts will be until the players take to the course come Thursday morning, I’d still expect the scoring to be quite low this week – as long as the wind doesn’t act up and start misbehaving.

Because, yes, when there is a concerted effort to toughen up a course, there is always a danger that tournament officials can end up flying too close to the sun in terms of how difficult they make the conditions. Rough becomes too long. Greens are tweaked and tinkered with to the point of becoming nigh on unplayable. But, realistically, given that Dubai Creek is a resort course 99% of the year, I can’t imagine that Harry Wells and his team will fall foul of veering too close to that line. Instead, like he said in his article, the Bermuda rough will be a bit thicker and juicier, the greens dried out a little more, but I wouldn’t be expecting a huge departure from how the course played last year – not when it’s still a pro-am.

 

THE ORACLES’ FOURBALL

RORY MCILROY

Whilst not exactly the hottest of takes to think that Rory McIlroy, of all people, has a good chance at winning a golf tournament, there is some precedent upon which I’m basing this decision besides the fact that he’s simply Rory McIlroy.

Finishing in a tie for second after some untimely dropped shots saw Tommy Fleetwood pip him to the post on Sunday, when you see how Rory performed over the course of the four rounds, it’s difficult to see how the first name to be carved into the Dubai Invitational trophy last year wasn’t McIlroy’s. With the course set up in the manner that it was this time last January, Rory’s prowess off the tee and prodigious iron play were always going to see him do well if his game was in any way sharp. Because, as history has shown, with seven wins under his belt in Dubai, desert golf clearly suits McIlroy’s game. And when you see that he notched up a total of twenty-six birdies around Dubai Creek last year, that preference is clearly still as strong as it always has.

Therefore, whilst it remains to be seen whether or not a tournament like this can get the competitive juices flowing enough for Rory to really compete this early in the season – especially so, in the wake of such a momentous season – if he gets off to a good start like he did last year, there’s no reason why McIlroy’s game shouldn’t see him making it win number eight out in the desert.

 

ANDY SULLIVAN

With a dip in form that saw him disappear from the top of leaderboards for a few seasons, Andy Sullivan has been slowly pulling his game back together over the last couple of years. A four-time winner on the European Tour – not to mention a Ryder Cup player back in 2016 – Sullivan’s game, when at its best, is built around accurate driving, decent GIR%, and a hot putter. And having put together a strong end to 2025 with three top-10s in his last five events – one of which was a tie for 7th at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship – Andy’s confidence in his game seems to be returning.

So, when I see a course like Dubai Creek with its decently wide fairways and a climate that suits his game, if Andy is in a good place mentally, he most certainly possesses the ability to go out this week and not only build on that same momentum, but kick it into a whole new gear.

 

NICOLAI HØJGAARD

It’s been a strange couple of years for Nicolai Højgaard. After a stellar 2023 that saw him picked for the Ryder Cup team and finish second in the Race to Dubai, everything was looking good for the Dane to kick on and progress. And whilst it seems harsh to say that the last two seasons spent splitting his time between the PGA and European Tours haven’t been overly successful – 34/49 cuts made Stateside since 2023 (69%) & 38/45 cuts made on the European Tour since 2023 (84%) – for a player as talented as Nicolai, to be without a win since claiming the DP World Tour Championship back in 2023 isn’t exactly ideal.

To have missed out on the Ryder Cup team last year, though, is what makes me think we could see Nicolai return to that form which saw him catapulted into the sphere of having dual-membership on both the PGA and European circuits. Because would he have been delighted to see his twin brother, Rasmus, qualify for the Ryder Cup team that wound up defeating the USA last September? Of course. But as the youngest of three brothers, I know for one that if I’d made the Ryder Cup team and then missed out on it while one of my brothers played ahead of me, I’d be gunning to get back on that team as soon as possible.

So, given his impressive length off the tee (3rd in Driving Distance on the PGA Tour), quality with his irons (11th in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green on the PGA Tour), and the fact that he’s shown himself adept at getting the job done in the desert, this week could be the perfect opportunity for Nicolai – who, remember, is still only 24 – to kickstart his ascent back to the heights of 2023 and beyond.

 

RASMUS NEERGARD-PETERSON

Viewed as one of the most promising young Europeans on the circuit, it’s easy to see why Rasmus Neergard-Peterson has quickly developed such a name for himself. Having turned professional in 2023 after a stellar four years playing college golf with Oklahoma State University – the alma mater for both Rickie Fowler and Viktor Hovland – Rasmus’ career to date has been marked by a steady consistency that culminated in an incredibly profitable 2025, with a T-12 finish at the U.S. Open, a second-place finish at both the Puerto Rico Open and Commercial Bank Qatar Masters, a third-place finish at the DP World Tour Championship, and his very first win at the Crown Australian Open proving beyond doubt that Rasmus has the pedigree to be both a serial winner on tour and a future Ryder Cup player.

Naturally, how he handles the transition into managing a schedule split between the US and Europe will be telling as to his strength of mind as the year unfolds. But with his accuracy both off the tee and with the irons (currently 3rd in Driving Accuracy & 10th in GIR%, albeit based on a small number of events), coupled with his obvious ability to score (9th in Stroke Average last season), at a course like Dubai Creek, where conditions couldn’t be more suited to play to his strengths, we could well see the 26-year-old Dane pick up where he left off in 2025 by grabbing another win to add to his already impressive résumé.