After watching Shane Lowry add his name to the list of unfortunate souls to have fallen victim to the ‘Bear Trap’, the Florida Swing moves from one legend’s backyard in the shape of Jack Nicklaus’ PGA National to Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill. Naturally, whenever you think of this most famous of tournaments, it’s hard not to think of Tiger Woods bullying the rest of the field and, metaphorically, shaking down Arnold Palmer for another winner’s cheque whenever he showed up. But, in recent years, I love what the Arnold Palmer Invitational has now come to represent.
Because it’s a proper test of golf.
Thick rough. Narrow fairways. Firm, lightning-quick greens that get the knees shaking over three-footers for par. That’s what I want to see from a tournament. Because the PGA Tour is the biggest show in golf – as per their tagline, it’s “where the best belong”. Therefore, when it comes to a marquee event like the annual trip to Bay Hill, I want to see these guys coming off the course looking mentally spent, yet delighted with the fact that they shot -2. And I think that’s what most golf fans want, really. I was talking to a guy last week who owns a café I like going to, a guy big into his golf, and he put it quite succinctly: “Shootouts have their place, but I don’t want to see it every week.” Well, if recent history is anything to go by, he won’t have to worry about that when it comes to Bay Hill.
Because, in the last five years, the average winning score at Bay Hill has only been -10, a total well below what we’d usually expect from a PGA Tour event. I mean, of the seven events so far this season, the winning score has been in the 20s on three occasions, and in the rest, the score that’s gotten across the line in first-place has been between -16 and -18. Now, will we see a repeat of the 2020 edition of the Arnold Palmer that played like someone had accidentally bumped up the game settings to TOUR in one of the Tiger Woods games? One where Tyrrell Hatton’s -4 total was enough to see him draped in that famous red cardigan? With sunny skies and wind speeds that, right now, shouldn’t be too problematic forecasted for the week, it’ll really depend on if the course is set up to be its usual punishing self – something which the month of good, dry weather they’ve just had should help with.
Either way, though, if you’re looking at who could possibly do well in Orlando, I’d be looking at guys who do well in a dogfight, who hang around off the back of steady, consistent play. Because to do well at Bay Hill, you have to love the challenge that it presents. But if you don’t have the patience for the mental strain that is needing to be fully dialled in on every shot? Then, whilst there might not be a ‘Bear Trap’ to stumble into, Arnie’s place can still break anybody – no matter who they are.
THE ORACLES’ FOURBALL
HARRIS ENGLISH
Having flown somewhat under the radar thus far this season, Harris English, all the same, has been putting together a solid start to his 2026. Taking to the road from the American Express right the way through to last week’s Genesis Invitational, the 6”2 English has clocked up two top-30 finishes and three top-25s from that block of five events over on the West Coast. Now, on the outside, that might not look all that inspiring or betray the signs of someone in red-hot form. And I’d understand that. But, as I’ve come to learn from my time picking guys who might do well in golf tournaments, “form” only really counts for so much. Take Nico Echavarria, the winner of the Cognizant Classic. From the five events he’d played before winning on Sunday, he missed the cut in four of them – one of which was the Genesis – and finished in a tie for 8th at Pebble. I mean, on paper, that doesn’t really scream “PICK ME!”, right?
Therefore, when I see a player as experienced as Harris heading to Orlando this week, driving the ball as well as he is (8th in SG: Off the Tee & 30th in Driving Accuracy), and sitting inside the top-30 in SG: Total off the back of twenty total rounds, I think he has the requisite length and demeanour to build on that solid start he’s been quietly stringing together. Because you don’t become a five-time winner on the PGA Tour by accident. Harris has the game. He has the class. And now that he’s had a few weeks of getting solid tournament reps under his belt, this week could well see him not only threaten the top-10 on the leaderboard, but even possibly go one way better than the runner-up finish he bagged at Bay Hill back in 2023.
RYAN GERARD
Having started off the season with two back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Sony and American Express, Ryan Gerard quickly found himself being mentioned in fantasy picks and power rankings for the events that followed such a hot start. Now, since then, after picking up a handy T-11 at Torrey Pines, Ryan has cooled off somewhat in comparison to that trio of starts that launched him amongst the early leaders in the FedEx Cup, clocking up a run that has seen him finish T-45 at Pebble, T-28 at the Genesis, and T-23 this past weekend in Florida.
But, again, much like Harris English, just because the 26-year-old hasn’t been lurking around the top end of leaderboards for a while doesn’t mean that he isn’t capable of returning to those lofty heights he reached in Hawaii and California. He’s driving the ball well (19th SG: Tee-to-Green) with decent accuracy (44th). He’s hitting his irons well (7th in SG: Approach the Green), something we’re seeing further backed up by the fact that he’s 17th in GIR%. And he’s putting decently well too – nothing spectacular, but he’s getting it done.
Plus, what I like about Ryan is that he owns his swing. It’s not the most aesthetically pleasing, no – say like a Rory or Adam Scott swing. But it’s his. The strong grip. The laid-off backswing. The steep downswing. He makes it work. And makes it work very well. So, despite this week being his first visit to Bay Hill, the fact that Ryan goes out and plays with what he has, I think, will serve him quite well. Because when you’re playing a course as difficult as Arnie’s backyard can be, you can’t be playing golf swing out there. It’s about instinct. It’s about staying in the moment. And with him coming in as something of a sleeper in the field, despite being 7th in the FedEx Cup? I think the North Carolina native’s steadiness can see him shine this week.
KEEGAN BRADLEY
Given that I’m looking for someone who likes a dogfight this week – and peak ‘07/‘08 Pádraig Harrington isn’t in the field – you can’t go wrong with Keegan Bradley.
After disappearing into the golfing wilderness for a while, Keegan Bradley has had one of the best understated resurgences for a golfer that we’ve seen in a while. Because once you wander into that aforementioned wilderness, it’s incredibly difficult to find your way back out. And, even if you do, there’s no guarantee that you’ll get back to the levels you might’ve been playing at before stumbling into those trees. It just does something to you.
Yet, when you look at Keegan Bradley, not only has he returned to the levels that saw him claim the PGA Championship back in 2011 – yikes – but he’s actually kicked things up another notch. Obviously, you can look at his Ryder Cup captaincy as being a particular highlight of this comeback, of sorts – as surprising a choice as that was. He’s picked up a win every year since 2022, bringing his total number of wins on Tour now to eight. But, more than anything, when you look at Keegan playing now, whether it’s on Tour or with the TGL as part of Boston Common, the man just plays with the look of a guy who’s comfortable with where he is. Now, he still plays with the same intensity he became famous for, not to mention the anxiety-induced fidgeting that must be debilitating to contend with when it flares up, but he’s been pairing it all with good performances, and that’s the main thing.
So, whilst his showings this season have been underwhelming, to say the least – two cuts and two finishes no better than a tie for 29th – I’m counting on Keegan’s previous performances at Bay Hill to count for something this week. Three top-5s. A couple of top-10s. I can see why it’s a tournament that suits him. Again, it’s about hanging in there. It’s about grinding out a score. Therefore, if he can get a good first round under his belt, I could see that settling Keegan into the week, and he can go from there.
If he doesn’t do any of those things, though, and has an absolute mare this week? I’m blaming the fact that he got rid of that magnificent moustache of his.
MIN WOO LEE
Whilst I could very easily put Matt Fitzpatrick in this slot, having written about the Englishman as someone to watch for both Pebble and the Genesis, apart from simply going, “Yeah, Matt, again …”, I just can’t write about him again – even if he would be a solid pick for this week.
Instead, I’m going to choose Min Woo Lee to, perhaps, do something special this week. Because if we’re looking at what Matt Fitzpatrick has been doing so far this season as a good omen for potentially making a run at Bay Hill, then what Min Woo has been doing is surely comparable. Almost getting himself into a playoff at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am? Then, following it up with a T-12 at the Genesis after an impressive final day 65? I mean, form-wise (for as much as we can take that into consideration), Min Woo is obviously in a good spot at the moment.
But when you look at how the Australian has actually been performing on the PGA Tour since getting his card in 2024, this isn’t really all that surprising. Yes, you can point to him bagging his first win at the Texas Children’s Houston Open last year as a big moment. But, apart from that, he’s been incredibly consistent. For someone who, for a while, I felt was mainly spoken about for having a great personality and heat in his driver, the now 27-year-old is playing with a real quiet confidence – something that we’re seeing reflected this year in his stats.
As I mentioned, Min Woo is still amongst the biggest hitters on tour, sitting 7th in Overall Distance. But he’s now pairing that with incredible accuracy too, ranking 18th overall for someone driving it nearly 320 yards on average. Now, stats-wise, his work with the irons could stand to be improved, but with his putter performing decently well this season (27th in Putting Average/36th in SG: Putting) and his solid short game (18th in SG: Around the Green), he’s been getting away with that less-than-stellar ironplay so far. However, if he can put it all together this week at a course as long as Bay Hill is? Then, with his length, Min Woo Lee could certainly be in with a shout of grabbing the biggest win of his career.
Yes, he’s only made the cut once in four attempts at Bay Hill. And whilst that could be indicative of the course just not suiting his eye, I’ll choose to believe that it’s just a matter of experience. Because, as we saw with his runner-up finish at PGA National in 2024, Min Woo can play well on tough courses. So, if he can do it at Jack’s Florida home, there’s no time like the present to show that he can do just the same at Arnie’s place.
